Who wins loses

So, Britain's election has been confirmed for May 5. Most commentators agree Labour is likely to win, though, intriguingly, if polls overestimate Labour's eventual lead by as much as at the last three general elections, we should expect the Conservatives to win. That would be unfortunate for the Conservatives. There is an economic crunch coming. Britain's budget deficit is as large, proportionally, as America's. But the American deficit has been built against a background of growth-inducing tax cuts. Britain's while taxes have been shooting up. Whoever wins will have to scale back Labour's public spending plans substantially, and will probably still see faster price rises, higher interest rates, growing unemployment and (depending on the scale of the cuts in spending plans) higher taxes. None of this is apparent in current economic conditions, but is nonetheless in the pipeline. Whoever wins this election will inherit this mess and the blame for it. It is Labour which deserves the blame.

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